Bread and peace model 2012 pdf

Posted on Friday, May 21, 2021 5:49:26 AM Posted by Sibyla C. - 21.05.2021 and pdf, and pdf 4 Comments

bread and peace model 2012 pdf

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The paper analyses economic and non-economic factors in order to develop a forecasting model for US Presidential election and predict it.

Bread, peace and the attrition of power : economic events and German election results

Post-Soviet African democratization has introduced elections into contexts that often lack restraints upon the behavior of candidates, resulting in the emergence of voter intimidation, vote-buying, and ballot fraud. We propose a model of electoral competition where, although some voters oppose violence, it is effective in intimidating swing voters. We show that in equilibrium a weak challenger will use violence, which corresponds to a terrorism strategy. Similarly, a nationally weak incumbent will use repression. However, a stronger incumbent facing local competition will prefer to use bribery or ballot fraud. We discuss the applicability of the model to several African elections.

Violence, bribery, and fraud: the political economy of elections in Sub-Saharan Africa

This paper aims at determining the various economic and non-economic factors that can influence the voting behaviour in the forthcoming United States Presidential Election using Lasso regression, a Machine learning algorithm. Even though contemporary discussions on the subject of the United States Presidential Election suggest that the level of unemployment in the economy will be a significant factor in determining the result of the election, in our study, it has been found that the rate of unemployment will not be the only significant factor in forecasting the election. However, various other economic factors such as the inflation rate, rate of economic growth, and exchange rates will not have a significant influence on the election result. The June Gallup Rating, is not the only significant factor for determining the result of the forthcoming presidential election. In addition to the June Gallup Rating, various other non-economic factors such as the performance of the contesting political parties in the midterm elections, Campaign spending by the contesting parties and scandals of the Incumbent President will also play a significant role in determining the result of the forthcoming United States Presidential Election.

Skip to search form Skip to main content You are currently offline. Some features of the site may not work correctly. DOI: According to the Bread and Peace Model postwar, American presidential elections should be interpreted as a sequence of referendums on the incumbent party's record during its four-year mandate period. View PDF. Save to Library.

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PDF | President Obama received approximately % of the two-party vote in the election. The last Bread and Peace Model forecast of.


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Items in EconStor are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated. Bread, peace and the attrition of power: Economic events and German election results. Aggregate votes for incumbent parties in post-war Germany were determined by the weighted-average growth of real per capita disposable income. Each percentage point of per capita real disposable income growth sustained over the legislative term yielded approximately two percentage points of votes in Germany. No other economic variables add value or significantly perturb the coefficients of our model.

Post-Soviet African democratization has introduced elections into contexts that often lack restraints upon the behavior of candidates, resulting in the emergence of voter intimidation, vote-buying, and ballot fraud. We propose a model of electoral competition where, although some voters oppose violence, it is effective in intimidating swing voters. We show that in equilibrium a weak challenger will use violence, which corresponds to a terrorism strategy. Similarly, a nationally weak incumbent will use repression. However, a stronger incumbent facing local competition will prefer to use bribery or ballot fraud.

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Violence, bribery, and fraud: the political economy of elections in Sub-Saharan Africa

The Rise of Silas Lapham

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According to the Bread and Peace Model post- war, American presidential elections should be interpreted as a sequence of referendums on.


COMMENT 4

  • Search this site. Xavierre L. - 27.05.2021 at 15:30
  • She was the PSL's nominee and the Peace and Freedom's nominee in the presidential election , her tenth consecutive candidacy as either a presidential or vice presidential candidate. Vallis G. - 28.05.2021 at 13:45
  • Abramowitz A. Atarmodi1955 - 29.05.2021 at 09:10
  • Bread, peace and the attrition of power : economic events and German election results. True R. - 30.05.2021 at 07:47

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